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Stochastic diffusion is the noisy process through which dynamics like epidemics, or agents like animal species, disperse over a larger area. These processes are increasingly important to better prepare for pandemics and as species ranges shift in response to climate change. Unfortunately, modelling is mostly done with expensive computational simulations or inaccurate deterministic tools that ignore the randomness of dispersal. We introduce ‘mean-FLAME’ models, tracking stochastic dispersion using approximate master equations to follow the probability distribution over all possible states of an area of interest, up to states active enough to be approximated using a mean-field model. In the limit where we track all states, this approach is locally exact, and in the other limit collapses to traditional deterministic models. In predator–prey systems, we show that tracking a handful of states around key absorbing states is sufficient to accurately model extinction. In disease models, we show that classic mean-field approaches underestimate the heterogeneity of epidemics. And in nonlinear dispersal models, we show that deterministic tools fail to capture the speed of spatial diffusion. These effects are all important for marginal areas that are close to unsuitable for diffusion, like the edge of a species range or epidemics in small populations. 

The division of a social group into subgroups with opposing opinions, which we refer to as opinion disparity, is a prevalent phenomenon in society. This phenomenon has been modeled by including mechanisms such as opinion homophily, bounded confidence interactions, and social reinforcement mechanisms. In this paper, we study a complementary mechanism for the formation of opinion disparity based on higher-order interactions, i.e., simultaneous interactions between multiple agents. We present an extension of the planted partition model for uniform hypergraphs as a simple model of community structure, and we consider the hypergraph Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model on a hypergraph with two communities where the binary ideology can spread via links (pairwise interactions) and triangles (three-way interactions). We approximate this contagion process with a mean-field model and find that for strong enough community structure, the two communities can hold very different average opinions. We determine the regimes of structural and infectious parameters for which this opinion disparity can exist, and we find that the existence of these disparities is much more sensitive to the triangle community structure than to the link community structure. We show that the existence and type of opinion disparities are extremely sensitive to differences in the sizes of the two communities.